Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 06 2020 | 8149 | 39004 | 254 | 62 | 586 | 967 |
| December 07 2020 | 8178 | 39102 | 254 | 63 | 615 | 928 |
| December 08 2020 | 8207 | 39214 | 257 | 63 | 546 | 871 |
| December 09 2020 | 8270 | 39342 | 257 | 64 | 514 | 791 |
| December 10 2020 | 8326 | 39458 | 257 | 65 | 536 | 763 |
| December 11 2020 | 8369 | 39581 | 260 | 65 | 515 | 806 |
| December 12 2020 | 8454 | 39704 | 260 | 65 | 545 | 793 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 3.9 | 7.5% | 41 | 0.36% | 53 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 5.4 | 12.1% | 66 | 0.49% | 83 | 0.61% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 12.6 | 25.7% | 140 | 0.67% | 217 | 1.04% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 9.6 | 18.2% | 99 | 0.73% | 144 | 1.06% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 6.0 | 11.2% | 61 | 0.58% | 92 | 0.88% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 6.7 | 12.5% | 68 | 0.54% | 98 | 0.78% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 3.3 | 7.7% | 42 | 0.36% | 62 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 8 | 3.3 | 5.1% | 28 | 0.27% | 44 | 0.42% |
| All ages | 85 | 50.7 | 100% | 545 | 0.52% | 793 | 0.76% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 06 2020 | 5185 | 23476 | 147 | 55 | 655 | 930 |
| December 07 2020 | 5218 | 23536 | 149 | 55 | 687 | 914 |
| December 08 2020 | 5249 | 23588 | 151 | 57 | 714 | 873 |
| December 09 2020 | 5277 | 23648 | 152 | 57 | 679 | 822 |
| December 10 2020 | 5314 | 23878 | 153 | 58 | 648 | 784 |
| December 11 2020 | 5373 | 23956 | 155 | 57 | 579 | 842 |
| December 12 2020 | 5408 | 24012 | 159 | 59 | 487 | 873 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.7 | 4.5% | 22 | 0.28% | 38 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.1 | 8.2% | 40 | 0.48% | 88 | 1.05% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 6.6 | 18.3% | 89 | 1.25% | 142 | 2% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 6.0 | 18.3% | 89 | 1.06% | 148 | 1.76% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 6.7 | 17.2% | 84 | 1.08% | 155 | 2% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 5.7 | 14% | 68 | 0.7% | 113 | 1.17% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.9 | 9.2% | 45 | 0.54% | 76 | 0.9% |
| 70+ | 7 | 3.6 | 10.3% | 50 | 0.7% | 113 | 1.59% |
| All ages | 35 | 38.3 | 100% | 487 | 0.75% | 873 | 1.35% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 06 2020 | 3844 | 15737 | 156 | 47 | 379 | 594 |
| December 07 2020 | 3854 | 15768 | 157 | 47 | 389 | 547 |
| December 08 2020 | 3870 | 15793 | 159 | 47 | 312 | 525 |
| December 09 2020 | 3905 | 15853 | 162 | 46 | 325 | 498 |
| December 10 2020 | 3931 | 15912 | 164 | 46 | 312 | 466 |
| December 11 2020 | 3964 | 16010 | 167 | 49 | 314 | 499 |
| December 12 2020 | 4001 | 16059 | 169 | 50 | 313 | 443 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 4.2% | 13 | 0.24% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.0 | 8.6% | 27 | 0.5% | 36 | 0.66% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 3.4 | 13.7% | 43 | 0.95% | 58 | 1.28% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 4.3 | 15.7% | 49 | 0.9% | 64 | 1.18% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.9 | 15.3% | 48 | 0.96% | 62 | 1.25% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.9 | 18.5% | 58 | 0.85% | 71 | 1.05% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.1 | 9.9% | 31 | 0.49% | 61 | 0.96% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.9 | 14.1% | 44 | 0.69% | 72 | 1.14% |
| All ages | 37 | 28.4 | 100% | 313 | 0.69% | 443 | 0.98% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 06 2020 | 8677 | 41807 | 182 | 40 | 916 | 1337 |
| December 07 2020 | 8706 | 41889 | 182 | 40 | 893 | 1305 |
| December 08 2020 | 8833 | 42075 | 192 | 42 | 927 | 1333 |
| December 09 2020 | 8908 | 42369 | 195 | 42 | 897 | 1257 |
| December 10 2020 | 8948 | 42571 | 202 | 42 | 861 | 1187 |
| December 11 2020 | 9015 | 42725 | 205 | 42 | 889 | 1202 |
| December 12 2020 | 9068 | 42884 | 205 | 43 | 859 | 1162 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 35 | 0.3% | 41 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 7.4 | 12% | 103 | 0.62% | 139 | 0.84% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 11.9 | 19.4% | 167 | 0.78% | 228 | 1.07% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 8.3 | 16.1% | 138 | 1.01% | 180 | 1.32% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 9.1 | 13.4% | 115 | 0.85% | 156 | 1.15% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 10.7 | 16.1% | 138 | 0.97% | 181 | 1.28% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.9 | 11.3% | 97 | 0.68% | 124 | 0.87% |
| 70+ | 3 | 4.9 | 7.7% | 66 | 0.51% | 113 | 0.87% |
| All ages | 53 | 61.0 | 100% | 859 | 0.73% | 1162 | 0.98% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 06 2020 | 29053 | 279749 | 850 | 104 | 2686 | 4187 |
| December 07 2020 | 29303 | 280474 | 855 | 104 | 2891 | 4297 |
| December 08 2020 | 29450 | 280669 | 866 | 107 | 2607 | 3695 |
| December 09 2020 | 29616 | 281148 | 883 | 108 | 2380 | 3626 |
| December 10 2020 | 29864 | 282086 | 887 | 109 | 2375 | 3497 |
| December 11 2020 | 30032 | 282782 | 897 | 112 | 2432 | 3620 |
| December 12 2020 | 30250 | 283544 | 902 | 112 | 2420 | 3407 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 11.4 | 5.1% | 124 | 0.21% | 173 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 25.6 | 13.7% | 331 | 0.47% | 451 | 0.63% |
| 20-29 | 43 | 44.3 | 22.9% | 555 | 0.53% | 734 | 0.71% |
| 30-39 | 31 | 27.3 | 16% | 386 | 0.5% | 566 | 0.74% |
| 40-49 | 32 | 23.1 | 14.1% | 341 | 0.52% | 491 | 0.75% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 21.0 | 11.5% | 279 | 0.43% | 416 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 17.6 | 8.8% | 213 | 0.39% | 285 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 30 | 15.9 | 7.9% | 191 | 0.39% | 291 | 0.59% |
| All ages | 218 | 186.1 | 100% | 2420 | 0.44% | 3407 | 0.62% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 06 2020 | 412177 | 2196722 | 18216 | 3719 | 37640 | 57501 |
| December 07 2020 | 414332 | 2202473 | 18286 | 3738 | 38495 | 56561 |
| December 08 2020 | 418446 | 2207950 | 18500 | 3806 | 37576 | 54473 |
| December 09 2020 | 422065 | 2216057 | 18715 | 3887 | 37364 | 52623 |
| December 10 2020 | 426099 | 2224578 | 18875 | 3944 | 38864 | 51562 |
| December 11 2020 | 429957 | 2231765 | 19020 | 3991 | 38644 | 54120 |
| December 12 2020 | 434016 | 2241348 | 19162 | 4041 | 38926 | 53146 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 179 | 168.1 | 4.7% | 1828 | 0.29% | 2361 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 386 | 376.6 | 11% | 4290 | 0.57% | 5782 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 673 | 581.3 | 16.6% | 6475 | 0.86% | 8813 | 1.16% |
| 30-39 | 687 | 565.9 | 16.4% | 6380 | 0.84% | 8664 | 1.14% |
| 40-49 | 561 | 500.3 | 14.3% | 5573 | 0.8% | 7673 | 1.1% |
| 50-59 | 628 | 540.0 | 15.4% | 5981 | 0.73% | 8198 | 1.01% |
| 60-69 | 485 | 408.4 | 11.4% | 4422 | 0.58% | 6066 | 0.8% |
| 70+ | 460 | 378.0 | 10.2% | 3977 | 0.62% | 5589 | 0.87% |
| All ages | 4059 | 3518.6 | 100% | 38926 | 0.67% | 53146 | 0.91% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.8 | 61 | 103.7 | 50.7 | 74 | 30.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | 38.3 | 59.7 | 30.9% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97.9 | 28.4 | 43.6 | 35.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98.3 | 84 | 107.1 | 61 | 89.4 | 25% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.3 | 63.5 | 70.7 | 186.1 | 263.6 | 21.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91.3 | 76.4 | 116.4 | 3518.6 | 3905.7 | 32% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 3.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.54 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3653"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges